BELLWETHER – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  Ohio is one of the most critical states in a presidential election, and often an indicator of which way the country will go.  The president's standing in Ohio shows just how tough, and close, the 2012 presidential election is likely to be.  From The Hill:

Voters in Ohio are split on whether President Obama deserves a second term, according to a poll released Thursday.

Obama's job approval/disapproval rating saw a slight uptick to 49-45 percent in May from 47-48 percent in April, a Quinnipiac University poll shows. But when asked if Obama deserves to be reelected, registered voters split 47-47 percent.

The president also fares worse against a generic Republican: Forty-one percent say they would vote for Obama compared to 39 percent who would vote for a Republican, a statistical tie. In April, Obama led a generic GOP foe 41-34 percent, a seven-point margin. Fifty-five percent of voters also disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy.

And...

The poll indicates that, early in the campaign season, Ohio's electoral votes are up for grabs. The state typically serves as a key swing state during presidential elections and whoever wins it often wins the general election.

Quinnipiac's assistant polling director Peter A. Brown also noted that Obama did not receive the so-called "bin Laden bounce" — the approval rating surge he saw nationally after the killing of the al Qaeda leader — in Ohio.

COMMENT:  The GOP must take states like Ohio, and Virginia, if it is to recapture the presidency.  The polls are close in both those bellwether states.  This next year, on a presidential politics level, could be brutal.

May 19, 2011